Neither Bremen nor Hannover are the most fashionable of sides but they are even more entertaining than a Robin Williams stand-up set, so bet on there being goals galore in their German Bundesliga derby match at the Weserstadion.
Many professional football punters put a line through all local arguments but such are the astonishing statistics pertaining to Bremen and Hannover that even the most anti-derby gambler may be tempted to get involved.
The numbers are so incredible that one would have to go a very long way to find a more compelling case for backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in a game between sides competing in one of European football’s top leagues.
We expect plenty more of this in the next clash between these 2 teams
Bremen and Hannover have each played 19 German Bundesliga matches this season so, counting their September 2012 clash only once, they have participated in 37 exclusive games. A total of four elite German teams have not featured in a goalless match. Bremen and Hannover are two of them, with the others being leader Bayern and fourth-placed Frankfurt.
None of Bremen’s German Bundesliga matches this term has produced fewer than two goals so fans of Thomas Schaaf’s side have been entertained throughout the season. Goals in Bremen’s games have totalled two five times, three five times, four three times and five six times for a 3.53 mean.
And only one of Hannover’s German Bundesliga matches this term has produced fewer than two goals, with goals in its games totalling one once, two three times, three four times, four four times, five five times, six once and nine once for an average of 3.95, which puts it at the top of the chart.
Bremen and Hannover met in the capital of Germany’s state of Lower Saxony in the third round of the German Bundesliga season and it was an action-packed, five-goal thriller in which Hannover was 2-0 up inside 10 minutes but required a last-gasp Szabolcs Huszti goal to beat Bremen. Huszti, who scored two of Hannover’s three goals and set up the other one, found time to receive his marching orders before Deniz Aytekin blew the final whistle and the home team celebrated.
Understandably, bookmakers are not keen to lay certain bets on Friday’s match between Bremen and Hannover but even odds of around 4-7 about the sides combining for more than 2.5 goals are worth taking. Of the 37 German Bundesliga games in which Bremen and Hannover have taken part this term, 28 of them have gone over 2.5 goals. That is a percentage of 75.68, which is around 1-3 in fractional betting odds.
Both teams to score is another football betting staple and bookmakers are quoting that option at odds of around for Bremen versus Hannover. Both sides have scored in 15 of Bremen’s German Bundesliga matches this season and 14 of Hannover’s games. Counting September 2012’s AWD-Arena meeting once, that means 28 out of 37 again. One should be able to see the value. It should be blindingly obvious to anyone who understands even the most basic mathematics.
A lot of the time it makes sense to bet against the crowd. This is not one of those times because every known statistic supports betting on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, plus bookmakers are doing their bit by offering odds that are generous in the circumstances. Their offers may be sufficient to put off punters who have not crunched the numbers but those gamblers who have done their homework appreciate that their offers should be even tighter.
Taking the analysis one step further to include all matches featuring either Bremen or Hannover this season, the over 2.5 goals strike rate is 38 out of 49 (77.55% per cent), while the both sides to score incidence is 39 out of 49 (79.59%). They are quite simply breathtaking statistics.
Bremen against Hannover is the opening game in the 20th round of this term’s German Bundesliga competition. The headline event is Sunday’s match between Leverkusen and Dortmund, the second- and third-placed teams. Bookmakers have chalked up odds that are disrespectful to Leverkusen given that it has yet to lose at home this season.